by Dave Meltzer:
The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s three most dominant champions – Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva and B.J. Penn – all suffer from the same problem: They might just be too good.
With all three fighters defending their titles in a two-week span, this is a prime example. St. Pierre retained his welterweight title against Dan Hardy on March 27 in a fight where odds favoring the champion were as high as 14-1 in the hours before the match.
None of the three seems to have a contender on the horizon that would present a competitive match. St. Pierre destroyed current top welterweight contender Jon Fitch so badly in 2008 that nobody, except possibly Fitch, is clamoring to see a rematch.
Penn also has no opponent in the division that would give him problems. Former PRIDE champion Takanori Gomi, who was No. 1 in the world in the weight a few years back, could have been that guy, but Kenny Florian shut him down badly on Wednesday night. Florian, though, could do nothing on offense against Penn when they fought in August, as Penn cruised to a submission victory.
While he would have been heavily favored, Silva’s original opponent at UFC 112, Vitor Belfort, would have given him a battle both on his feet and on the ground. But Belfort had to pull out due to an injury. Silva also has an interesting prospective opponent in Chael Sonnen, a wrestler who would go into a possible fight as a strong underdog. The difference between Silva with St. Pierre and Penn is that Silva can be taken down by a good wrestler.
Sonnen, who used wrestling to take a decision from Nate Marquardt in his last fight, at least has the potential of giving Silva a style problem. Whether he could implement that strategy for 25 minutes without getting caught is another issue.
UFC president Dana White has talked about, in regards to all three, how if someone has “cleaned out” a division, that they should test themselves by moving up. St. Pierre has already done that. And the other two are on the verge of doing so.
Silva has already tested himself twice at light heavyweight, scoring first-round knockouts over James Irvin and former champion Forrest Griffin. Penn has fought in the past as a welterweight, holding the championship in 2004. In fact, he had to be talked into fighting at lightweight in 2007, as he always wanted to face bigger guys. But it was in that division in which he has established himself as the legendary fighter that he was expected to be when he debuted in the sport and earned the nickname “The Prodigy.”
But there are issues involved in moving up for all three. For Silva, it’s that frequent training partner Lyoto Machida is light heavyweight champion, and the two have said they won’t fight. As long as Machida is champion, Silva moving up makes little sense.
For Penn, he already faced St. Pierre for the 170-pound title last year, losing handily.
Unlike Silva and Penn, who have talked of maintaining their current title but testing themselves in the next weight class, St. Pierre has said he will not bounce between classes. He is willing to move up to middleweight permanently when his natural body weight hits 200 pounds (he’s in the 193-194 range right now), saying he’s not going to risk his health doing massive weight cutting.
Unlike Silva, St. Pierre, no matter how much muscle he adds, has a very small physical structure compared to those who compete at 185. So does Penn at 170. As it is, the two are the UFC’s second and third biggest current draws, even when facing opponents that are given little chance to beat them.
Is it wise to risk sure things by putting them in weight classes where both will have a major size disadvantage against the top challengers, potentially hurting their superstar auras? That’s a decision that the fighters and the UFC will have to make.
A look at the reigns of the UFC’s dominant champions:
Anderson Silva
UFC middleweight champion
Won title: Oct. 14, 2006, from Rich Franklin in Las Vegas via knockout from knees at 2:59 of the first round (on March 27, he broke Tito Ortiz’s record of three years, five months and 12 days as light heavyweight champion for the longest single title reign in UFC history).
Successful title defenses:: 5 (ties record set by Tito Ortiz and Matt Hughes)
Finishes/decisions:: 4 finishes, 1 decision
High point: Finishing Dan Henderson, who had been the champion in PRIDE, on the ground with a second-round choke at UFC 82 on March 1, 2008.
Low point: Consecutive lackluster fights on Oct. 25, 2008, and April 1, 2009, against Patrick Cote and Thales Leitis, the latter of which caused him to temporarily fall out of the No. 1 spot in the Y! Sports rankings.
Analysis: When Silva faces Maia, he will be going for the all-time record for title defenses in a single reign, and to extend his all-time UFC record winning streak, currently at 10 fights, nine of which have been via stoppage. He would already have the former record, but a win over Travis Lutter in 2007 that was scheduled as a title defense ended up as a non-title match when Lutter didn’t make weight. The next records he’d be gunning for would be most wins in championship matches for a career, and the longest time for a career as champion inclusive of all reigns. A win on April 10 would be his seventh in a title match, with the record being nine held by Randy Couture and Matt Hughes. With almost 42 months as champion, he’s still more than a year shy of Couture’s career record of 58 months as champion in five different title reigns.
Silva, 34, has never lost in UFC competition. However, his quality of opposition hasn’t always been the best. Only Franklin, a former champion, and Henderson could have been considered possible No. 2s in the world when he beat them. He has an overall 25-4 record, with his last loss in 2006 via disqualification for an illegal kick against Yushin Okami. Prior to that, his last loss was in 2004, to Ryo Chonan.
Georges St. Pierre
UFC welterweight champion
Won title:: April 19, 2008, over Matt Serra in Montreal via stoppage from knees to the body on the ground at 4:54 of the second round.
Successful title defenses:: 4
Finishes/decisions:: 1 finish, 3 decisions
High point: Stopping B.J. Penn on Jan. 31, 2009, when Penn couldn’t continue after four rounds.
Low point: The closest thing to a low point would be that he didn’t finish Dan Hardy on March 27, but he still won a dominant decision.
Analysis: St. Pierre, 28, holds the UFC record of winning 25 rounds in a row. Since his UFC debut in 2004, in a total of 16 fights, he has lost just four rounds. He lost one round each to Hughes, Penn (in their first fight), Serra (first fight) and Josh Koscheck, and he has a 20-2 pro record.
Given his age, it is likely he will wind up setting the all-time record for UFC wins. He now has 14, trailing only Chuck Liddell and Hughes at 16, and Couture and Ortiz at 15.
By passing the two-year mark as champion later this month, he will join a select group to reach that milestone, including Silva, Ortiz, Pat Miletich, Hughes, Penn and Liddell.
Of the three current dominant champs, St. Pierre’s quality of wins is the highest with Penn, Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves. Opponents always seize on his striking as a potential weak point, yet he outstruck both Penn and Alves, two of the best strikers in the sport.
B.J. Penn
UFC lightweight champion
Won title:: Jan. 19, 2008, over Joe Stevenson to win vacant championship in Newcastle, U.K., via stoppage from a choke at 4:02 of the second round.
Successful title defenses:: 3
Finishes/decisions:: 3 finishes
High point: Dominating former champion Sean Sherk in his first title defense on May 24, 2008.
Low point: Moved up a weight class, and in the biggest fight of his career, was on the wrong end of a thorough beatdown against St. Pierre at UFC 94.
Analysis: Penn, 31, joins Couture as the only UFC fighters to have held championships in two different weight classes. His 15-5-1 record is deceptive, because his only loss as a lightweight came in 2002. He also has no apparent weaknesses. His conditioning was questionable early in his career, when he was regarded as the best first-round fighter in the world. Since hiring Marv Marinovich as his strength and conditioning coach, however, that has ceased to be an issue.
So who is the best?
It’s hard to compare all three. Silva has to rank overall as the best at this point simply because he’s never lost, nor has he even been in danger of losing in UFC competition, and he has such a high percentage of finishes. He also moved up in weight and destroyed a former champion in Griffin.
Penn moved up in 2004 and won the welterweight title from Hughes, and he hasn’t been challenged at 155 in two years since winning the belt.
If you factor age into the equation, St. Pierre looks to have the most years left – and he already has had the most box-office success. Because of the way St. Pierre has dominated legitimate top contenders, he has the best chance of the three – when all is said and done – as being regarded as the best fighter in UFC history.
